Wed, November 9, 2016 3:32 am

October was CRAZY! The recent surge in seaborne pricing has had our phones and emails blowing up. We have thoroughly enjoyed hearing from so many of you and gathering perspectives from all over the globe. We have taken all this information and blended it with the flurry of data that was released in conjunction with earnings and packaged it with the DTC Coal & Emissions Monthly Update: November 2016. Thanks to everyone who reached out- keep the calls coming!~ Team DTC


Major Takeaways:

  1. Supply/Demand Changes: With the hopping market, we made a few changes this month. We bumped up production in Capp, Napp, ILB and PRB. We also revised up utility coal demand due to rising natgas prices and favorable weather for coal burn, and we increased coking coal exports.
  2. Coal Price Forecasts: We have remained steadfast in our belief that the path of least resistance for coking coal prices is higher, but continue to watch with amazement as a stream of supply hiccups sends prices higher week after week.
  3. Northeast Natgas Prices Headed Up: Coal generation economics in the Northeast are still very challenging, but it helps that Marcellus shale region gas is not being given away for free anymore.
  4. Global Producers Going Gangbusters: We managed to track down Q3 production/earnings/sales reports for nearly all the major global players to help get a bead on what is happening as the markets continue to shift.
  5. Next Big Battle Queues Up at D.C. Circuit: Judges at the D.C. Circuit seemed unlikely to hand a clean victory to challengers of the Clean Power Plan who argued before the court in September, but opening briefs have now been filed in a case which could render the issue moot.
  6. Retirement Plans Refined: Several coal unit retirements hit the news this month, but most of the action involved fine-tuning and formalization of existing plans.


Do You Have a Seat Reserved?

DTC is securing an enviable line up of speakers and panelists for our 21st Lunch, Coal and Q&A event on Wednesday December 7, 2016 from 11:30 AM – 3:30 PM at the New York Marriott Marquis. The event follows the Coal Trading Association’s annual conference at the same hotel. Come and hear some of the most insightful people in the industry share their wisdom about these crazy markets. Cost is $525/pp.

Our last 14 events have sold out – don’t delay!

To reserve your spot today, please contact Jack Chidester or call +1 212 520 2768