Thu, October 3, 2019 2:30 pm
And just like that…we find ourselves in Q4! As quickly as 2019 has flown by, each day still seems to bring more coal industry news to our attention. This is where we you come in. Team DTC has a deep bench of knowledgeable players, but we still appreciate all the on-the-ground and timely intel we receive from around the globe. Keep the questions, comments and suggestions coming – we look at all of them. In the meantime, click on the attached 127 pages and get yourself ready for the dash to 2020!
- Changes to October’s Supply/Demand Forecast: With the onset of Q4, we are finalizing our 2019 estimates by maintaining our burn forecast but holding fast to our theory that natgas will continue to play the scrooge to close the year. The ILB is seeing some shifts, while the PRB is looking to regain its footing. Turn to page 9 to see the complete picture.
- EIA Q2 Revision Figures: This process left a bad taste in our mouth for Q2 as we would normally generate some reliable estimates based on data published from MSHA ahead of the revision. Despite knowing there were still gaps in those figures, EIA pushed ahead with its release and boxed us out of the estimate window. We do expect the revision to be revised once the remaining production is reported. You can see where it stand currently on page 13.
- Labor Responds to Opening India’s Coal Sector to More FDI: In response to August’s decision to open the Indian coal industry to more foreign-direct investment (FDI), last month witnessed a significant one-day work stoppage at Coal India’s operations. Turn to page 62 for the details on this labor unrest.
- European Steel Order Books Paralyzed by Uncertainty: September’s decline in Germany’s previously sub-50 point purchasing manager’s index (reading below 50 points indicates decline in activity) has heighted anxiety about the outbreak of a recession in Europe’s largest economy. With the EU the single largest destination for U.S. met exports, please turn to page 74 for insights on steelmaking activity in August within its member states as well as around the globe.
- Bankruptcy Deals Make Headway: September saw a number of progress updates in both the Blackjewel and Cambrian Holdings bankruptcy proceedings, with Kopper Glo Mining and Coking Coal, LLC coming to an agreement over the Black Mountain and Lone Mountain complexes, Contura forging an agreement with Eagle Specialty Materials for the Eagle Butte and Belle Ayr mines, and Cambrian Holdings completing its auction/bid process for its assets. To peruse last month’s bankruptcy progress and other equity-related coverage for domestic producers, please head to page 94.
- Here, There and Everywhere: October sees Team DTC scattering all over the globe, starting with Hans and Dianna attending the IHS North American Export Coal and Gas Summit the 2-4 in San Francisco. The 8-10th, John Lowell will be in Vancouver, BC at the Coal Association of Canada Conference and then mid-month, Andy and Vicky drop into Lisbon, Portugal for the Coaltrans World Coal Conference. As always, if you see us, please say hello!
Clients can access the report in the subscriber area. For more information on how to access the Monthly Update or to sign up for a free, month-long trial, please contact Ben Coleman (Bcoleman@doyletradingconsultants.com, +1.646.957.8894).